Growth Management Policy and Land Use Change

The impact of growth management policy through zoning ordinances on land-use and -cover change is a topic of increasing interest, especially with regard to urban sprawl and forest and agricultural land preservation. As urban and residential land use is quickly replacing extractive land use in southern Indiana, implementation of growth management policy has become a topic of great debate. This analysis assesses the broad impact of zoning laws on the relative amounts of forest, agricultural, and developed land at the county level, while controlling for access to metropolitan areas, demographic information, and taxation rates. In Southern Indiana there has been forest regrowth on private lands on abandoned agricultural, but increasingly there is urban residential development. This study explores the impact of zoning on these processes. We develop an econometric model of land-use shares in 40 southern Indiana counties based on the net benefits to agriculture, forestland, and urban uses. We find some evidence that changing agricultural profitability is leading to private forest regrowth and that zoning impacts this transition. We also conclude that the ratio of urban to agriculture land uses is better explained by incorporating measures of residential land value, industrial concentration, and zoning instead of simply considering population density alone. Our study uncovers a need to better understand the endogenous relationship between zoning policymaking and land use change.